Ah the hypocrisy...

Milan Lucic has officially been suspended for Game 3.

So let me get this straight... according to Colin Campbell players are allowed to:
-- Sucker punch an opponent in the face at the drop of the puck while on the wing (Cammalleri)
-- Attempt to elbow an opponent in the jaw, missing by less than an inch (Kostopoulos)
-- Continually eye-gouge an opponent, drawing blood and requiring sutures (Komisarek)
-- Hit a player into the boards while they are celebrating an ENG to seal a playoff game (Lapierre)


However, they are not allowed to do the following or they will be suspended:
-- Punch an opponent in the back of the head while at center (Carcillo)
-- Defend yourself from a charging agitator after already having been elbowed in the face (Lucic)


At the end of a blow-out over Montreal (how sweet that sounds!), Lucic was elbowed/butt-ended in the face by Mathieu Schneider. Like any legit player (this excludes most of Montreal's roster), Lucic went back at Schneider and crosschecked him as payback. This drew the attention of resident PITA Lapierre, who came flying towards Lucic from the side while he was engaged with Schneider. Seeing the oncoming pest, Lucic, already in the defensive position, raised his hands and made contact with Lapierre's head, knocking off his helmet. He was immediately attacked by Komisarek and effectively jumped by THREE Montreal players. On ice, Lucic was given 2 for cross-checking, 5 for fighting (I believe) and 10 misconduct leading to a 5-minute power-play for Montreal. It was only after the game that the call magically transformed into an match penalty for an intent to injure... very curious to say the least.

So Colin Campbell, who just this week laughed off the suggestion of actually deigning to punish Montreal players for blatant attempts to injure, determines that Lucic deserves to be suspended. What is worse is, he is going by Lucic's intent... not his actual actions!

While it is unclear whether Lucic's glove or stick makes contact with Lapierre, what is clear is that he delivered a reckless and forceful blow to the head of his opponent

Apparently Kostopoulos can intend to injure by throwing an elbow but that is acceptable since he didn't actually connect... only Lucic's intents are punishable. Needless to say, the acts of Gary Bete-man and his lap-dog Colin Campbell have SERIOUSLY damaged the integrity of the game. Not only has there been minimal consistency in officiating throughout the season now there is no consistency in discipline either and punishment apparently is determined not by your actions but by your star power and team. How else can you explain a Flyer and Bruin getting punished while Flames and Canadiens' get off scott-free? The only explanation can possibly the star power of players involved (Komisarek, Cammalleri) and the opposition/teams involved. After all, both Boston and Philly have reputations of being rough-and-tumble teams (despite Boston ranking at the bottom of the league in penalties) while Montreal and Pittsburgh (aka Crosby and the Malkinites) are both the media-darlings of the league. That is the only posisble explanation here...

I suppose Bete-man finally got his dream... he has turned the NHL into the NBA!

RTSS = Home-Cooking?

The question arose while watching the latest Bruins-Canadiennes tilt at Montreal. After the first period, the hit totals in the game were 27 to 10 in favor of Montreal (shocker!) which put the Canadiennes on pace for 81 (!!!!) hits, only slightly above their home-average of 28.5 hits per game. The final hit total came out to 48-25 which is still a ridiculous total with an unrealistic difference between the two teams. Are we really to believe that the Canadiennes were TWICE as physical as the Bruins? Or was this just another instance of the home-town scorer being generous and stretching the definition of a hit?

This all got me thinking about statistics when involved with sports and how subjectivity should be avoided at all costs. The other major leagues rely primarily upon objective stats (the MLB error is the only subjective stat that comes to mind) as does hockey for the most part (goals, assists, +/-, shutouts, wins, losses etc…). However, lately there has been an increased interest in RTSS (Real-Time Scoring System) stats and I have seen these metrics used more and more when comparing players and teams. For those unfamiliar with the concept of RTSS, it is the use of a dedicated scorer to record the total number of hits, blocked shots, missed shots, giveaways, takeaways and faceoff outcomes for each team. It has been in place since the beginning of the ’97-’98 season but has only become accessible to everyday fans in the past year or so. Every NHL boxscore on ESPN features these statistics prominently, alongside shot and PIM totals, above the scoring summary. The placement of these subjective figures atop the page next to more traditional, objective statistics gives them an importance and legitimacy that is not truly deserved. Thankfully, the other main hockey/sports sites (SI, TSN, NHL) do not list this ‘information’ at all, or make it difficult to find as is the case with NHL.

Now don’t get me wrong... I am a big proponent of using statistics to compare players and teams. I love the fact that more and more statistical analyses are becoming available and that hockey and the NHL are moving in that direction. The game of baseball has changed dramatically over the past decade or two thanks to the advent of SABRmetrics and similar statistics which delve further into how the game is played. These advanced analyses have allowed for the objective comparison of players from any era by measuring those players against their peers (the only possible way to legitimately compare players of different eras). I have seen a similar approach taken with RTSS stats by adjusting the numbers to remove any inherent bias from certain arena scorers. However, too many questions arise with their methodology and the concept in general...

• What equations are to be used?
• How is a bias judged?
• How is it to be done?
• Will it be a rolling adjustment done after every game?
• Will it be based off last season's biases?
• Will it have to wait until season's end when all the numbers have been accumulated?
• What happens if the scorer, and thus the bias, changes mid-season?

Even should acceptable responses be established for all of these questions, there still remains a major flaw… the subjectivity of the original RTSS stats! The difference between adjusting RTSS stats and baseball’s ERA+, OPS+ and other SABRmetrics is their basis in facts; their basis in objective data. Consider adjusting statistics to be like building a house on a weak foundation… no matter how perfect the design (the adjustment equations) it is still doomed to collapse due to its poor foundation (RTSS stats). Here is an illustration of WHY they are such a poor foundation…

Hits – How do you define a hit? How hard does it have to be? Does a player have to be knocked to the ice or does a simple two-handed shove count? Sure, there are plenty of bruising hits with solid contact but there are just as many instances where some level of contact is made… how much constitutes an official hit? Also, while there are plenty of instances where there is a clear-cut aggressor, what happens when both players are trying to be physical? Does the hit get credited to both players or only to one, and if the latter who ‘wins’ the hit?

Blocked Shots – Is intent considered or does dumb luck play a role in this stat? Does the shot have to actually be on net (or appear to be doing so) to count as a block or is it merely recognition of the bravery to step in front of that vulcanized rubber disc, regardless of its destination? If the shot is blocked and caroms into the net, does it count as a blocked shot, a positive stat, despite the negative impact of the play?

Missed Shots – Same issue as the blocked shots but in reverse… does a shot not on net count as a miss even if blocked? And what about shots that are clearly going over the crossbar (and thus not on net) yet are gloved by the goalie… is that a shot or a missed shot?

Faceoff wins – How is a faceoff win determined? Is possession the only important thing or does it have to do with which side of the dot the puck ended up on? In other words, if the Boston center knocks the puck back towards his side but an opposing player is the first to gain possession who gets the win? The opposition clearly has the puck and thus won the faceoff and yet the Boston center did nothing to merit a loss since he controlled the puck better than his opponent.

Giveaway/Takeaway – Once again… what is the definition here? Apparently the two are mutually exclusive (a play can only be one or the other, never both) and therefore the two numbers do not have to balance out. Still the question becomes what counts as what… does a failed dump-in count as a giveaway or takeaway? Does an intentional icing or slow-roller (to prevent icing) count as a giveaway? What about errant passes… do they count and if so, who gets (dis)credited with it, the passer or intended receiver? Not always clear who is at fault for the missed opportunity. Or do they simply count as a takeaway regardless of whether the pass would have been ‘completed’?

Admittedly, the extent of the subjectivity in these statistics varies with hits, giveaways and takeaways having the potential to be ruled by scorer bias while the other three instances are more clear cut. However, the situations where each stat is opened to subjectivity (bias) are enough to skew the data over the course of the season and make them statistically useless. To prove the deficiencies of these stats, I will provide examples in my next entry...

Yes, it really is a bad thing...

Well, he did it again and quite frankly, no one should be surprised by it. I am, of course, referring to Sean Avery's obviously rehearsed insults directed at Dion Phaneuf through the media and the immediate backlash that ensued. No surprise that he did this... it was actually a fairly shrewd move on his part seeing as Phaneuf and Iginla would have destroyed him had he played that night. I happen to think the suspension was merited and could care less if he is ever allowed to return to the ice! I could go on at length about this topic but it has already been beaten into the ground and Tom at HCtB already said it better than I could have (with quite the title I might add).

No, the title of this blog is actually referring to the disaster that is the NHL All-Star balloting and the fact that some people are actually trying to justify the potential of a Canadienne starting lineup. Reading this actually made me quite annoyed so I decided I would pick apart the argument piece by piece...

For starters, from an atmosphere-in-the-arena point of view, can you imagine how loud, how crazy, how overwhelming it will be when the starting lineup is announced and the East is represented entirely by the bleu, blanc et rouge? Montreal fans, who need little to no reason to break into song at any moment, will be bellowing themselves hoarse. It will be a scene to remember, probably one of the top 10 moments in Bell Centre history. This is called an “ends justifying the means” argument.

Wait, aren't the Canadienne fans supposedly the best in the league? If that were truly the case, why would they need a reason to 'bellow themselves hoarse'? Shouldn't the simple fact that they are hosting the game be enough? Good hockey fans shouldn't need for the starting lineup of an All-Star game to be comprised of their favorite team to get excited about attending the game.

Oh, and seeing as the Bell Centre opened in '96, are we really supposed to be all excited about its potential for being one of the 'top 10 moments' in its history? It's only been around for TWELVE years!

Another situation that has been raised is the Rory Fitzpatrick fiasco of a couple years ago, when Canucks fans nearly voted in the journeyman defenseman despite the fact he was a regular healthy scratch in Vancouver. The difference this time is, these six Habs are integral to Montreal’s fortunes. As mentioned, Koivu, Markov and Tanguay deserve to be in the game, period. And you can make a case for the others: Komisarek is a stay-at-home, physical force; Kovalev might not be playing up to his own lofty standards, but he’s still Montreal’s most dangerous forward; and, there’s no doubting Price’s caliber and upside.

So the starting six for every other franchise is immaterial to the team's fortunes? What makes the Montreal sextet more deserving than Boston's starters Lucic, Savard, Kessel, Chara, Ward and Thomas? Hell, four of those six merit inclusion anyways while Ward and Lucic are certainly more deserving than the inconsistent twins, Kovalev and Price! So why shouldn't Bruins be the AS game starters? They have better stats than the Montreal starters (31-48-79 +42 compared to 25-50-75 +20; 1.88GAA, .940% vs 2.40GAA, .920%) and are on a better team!

Good things are ahead for them and, by extension, the Canadiens. Besides, it’s not like Kovalev is bumping Crosby right out of the game; he’s just bumping him out of the starting lineup. And, finally…c’mon, folks, it’s the All-Star Game. Like the All-Star Game in every other sport, it doesn’t really matter and nobody cares too much. Go out, have fun, put on a good show for the fans and, for heaven’s sake, don’t get hurt. As a player, that’s all you really have to do.

No, Crosby will still get to play in the game... there is no doubt about that. Same goes for Malkin and Ovechkin. However, the league will have to use three spots that should have gone to more deserving players who may not get a second opportunity. Assuming the roster is filled out with the top scorers for each position, that would leave a number of more deserving candidates out in the cold. As it stands now, this will be the AS-roster with the TRUE starters in bold...

D - Markov, Komisarek, Streit, Hainsey, Green, Kuba
F - Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Gagne, Savard, Semin, Richards, Carter, Parise
G - Price, Thomas, Lundqvist

Of the six Canadiennes, only one merits starting... the other five honestly don't even merit inclusion! Komisarek (1-0-1) knocks out the more deserving Girardi (3-12-15, 6th in D scoring), Rozsival (2-12-14, T8th) or Wideman (6-7-13, T10th).

The starting trio of Kovalev (5-13-18, T31st in F scoring), Koivu (7-14-21, T18th) and Tanguay (8-9-17, T37th) knock out three more deserving players, including Vanek (18-5-23, T12th), Zherdev (9-15-24, 11th), Kessel (13-7-20, T23rd) and/or Backstrom (6-17-23, T12th).

Price (8th in GAA, 7th in %) locks out Auld (3rd GAA, 5th %) or Anderson (4th GAA, 1st %) from getting onto the roster.

I selected these nine players for a reason... all have had far superior production than the Canadiennes starters to this point in the season and none have ever played in the All-Star Game. For those people who say the game is pointless and means nothing, tell that to the players! Tell that to Tim Thomas and Marc Savard who saw last year's addition to the roster as a career-making moment... these two players had been criticized for their style and play throughout their entire career. To finally attain the honor of making the AS roster meant they had truly arrived... they were considered among the best in their profession and no one could take that away from them. If you think that first AS bid means nothing to the players, then you are a fool. It especially holds true for any player who has had to go through adversity to get to this stage in their career.

You think Phil Kessel wouldn't be thrilled to make the game? It would prove that you CAN overcome testicular cancer and develop into a three-zone player and get recognized for your efforts. You think Tim Thomas wouldn't consider the AS start (which he deserves) as the greatest possible salve for all the garbage he had to deal with throughout his well-travelled career? Some of these players may never get another chance at being an All-Star... being considered one of the elite. So you talk to those players and then tell me the game is meaningless and that it is a good thing the Montreal sextet gets to play when more deserving candidates are left out in the cold. Truly pathetic.

Oh, and for those Canadiennes fans complaining about the inroads Crosby has made in the voting, did you ever think that it was your own doing? All fans around the league have been annoyed by your actions and are responding by trying to oust your unworthy candidates by pushing the more deserving players. As for Whitney and Gonchar being the highest non-Montreal vote-getters for D-men, the same rule applies... had Montreal not stuffed the ballot (electronically or not), Pitt fans would not have done so either. Canadienne fans have no right to complain about something they caused in the first place...

History repeats itself?

History repeats itself…

Watching hockey highlights over the weekend, I came across the Kostopoulos/Van Ryn incident and I couldn’t help but flashback to October 27th of last year. The date is burned into the minds of Bruins fans as day we nearly lost the face of our franchise to a dirty, illegal hit from behind into the boards. The thing that really disturbed me about the play was just the sheer similarity. In both instances, the guilty party had time to pull up and either avoid the hit all together or greatly reduce the impact. Instead, the ‘attacker’ decided to go in full steam and exacerbated the situation with the downward thrust to the shoulders. Had the check been a straight hip check, the injuries would have been far less severe as the body would have absorbed most of the impact with the boards. Instead, the shoulders were pushed downwards focusing the impact force onto the head and leading to serious injury.

Now the question becomes, what punishment will be brought down on Kostopoulos?

Bergeron-Jones incident results:
PIM – Jones 5 Boarding, Jones 10 Misconduct, Kobasew 2 Roughing
Injury – Severe concussion, broke nose
Time Lost – Remainder of season and postseason
Punishment – Two game suspension for Jones

Kostopoulos-Van Ryn incident results:
PIM – Kostopoulos 5 Boarding, Kostopoulos 10 Misconduct, 2 matching Roughing
Injury – Concussion (severity unknown), broken nose, broken hand/finger
Time Lost – Remains to be seen… minimum of one month
Punishment – Remains to be seen…*

Thankfully, Patrice Bergeron has managed a full recovery after being lost for the remainder of the ‘07-‘08 season. Hopefully the same will be true for Mike Van Ryn, preferably with a shorter layoff. I will be very interested to see if Kostopoulos is suspended for the hit... I get the upsetting feeling that he will get off with a slap on the wrist just like Jones did...

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On an unrelated note, I came across this link on the Boston Globe’s Bruins Blog and just had to share it… it is amazing to read everything Thomas has had to deal with to even get a chance to play in the NHL. Fortunately for him (and Boston), he has taken the opportunity presented him and run with it straight to the top of the NHL.

*Edit: Kostopoulos was suspended by the NHL for 3 games this afternoon. While I am glad to see there was a suspension issued, it comes with some concerns for me... for one, only three games? Seems pathetically low for such a serious injury, though I thought the same thing about Jones's two game suspension, which, of course, is my other concern. Why the difference in suspensions when the plays were nearly identical? I realize it is only one game but it is still different and its the principle of the matter.