Showing posts with label Salary Cap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Salary Cap. Show all posts

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Could there be a light at the end of the tunnel?

The Bruins finally appear to have recaptured some of last season's mojo and are playing as everyone expected them to entering the season. The defense has been excellent for the past five games, as has the goaltending and the offense appears to finally be coming around. As if this wasn't enough good news, it would appear that the walking wounded are closer to returning to the ice and are expected in two weeks or so.


During the telecast of Tuesday's game against Pittsburgh, VS interviewed Marc Savard about his recovery path. Apparently the plan is to be back on the ice this coming Tuesday and if everything goes well and doctors give their permission he hopes to be back in action four or five days later.

Meanwhile, the Globe is reporting that Milan Lucic had his first skate with the team today to test how his surgically repaired finger handled vibration from puck-impact on the blade. There were no problems reported though he has yet to take any slap shots or bodychecks. Julien is being understandably cautious with the hulking winger and setting his return date to at least a week away, if not a bit longer.


What does this all mean you ask? It means that the REAL Bruins will likely take the ice for the Monday night game in St. Louis on the 23rd with at least a week's practice under the belt.

Question now is, who gets sent down? Whitfield is an obvious choice but will Marchand or Sobotka be the ones to stick? My money is on Sobotka but he may be forced out along with Marchand due to cap considerations.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

One area where the NHL trumps the NFL

Most Americans consider the NFL to be the dominant sports league and view the NHL as a fringe organization. Unfortunately for puckheads, this is a pretty accurate assessment as hockey lacks anything close to the national television deal that the NFL enjoys. However, one area where the NHL has it all over the NFL is its financial transparency. Incidents of the past week illustrate my point perfectly...


On Monday, October 19th the Patriots released LB Tully Banta-Cain, the team leader in sacks who was making only $620K on his one-year deal. There was no reason given for the surprise release and all media outlets were dumbfounded by the move and struggled to explain any possible motivation. The following day, Banta-Cain re-signed with the Patriots for more money and more years and the best explanation ESPN could come up with was essentially a best guess and nothing definite. They THINK it was due to the player being signed to a cap-friendly contract type that could not be altered until its conclusion, and thus the release was necessary to get an extension.


The same week, the Bruins lost Marc Savard, their first line center and leading scorer, for 4 to 6 weeks to a broken foot. For a team that was pushing up against the cap, such an injury has major cap implications as replacements must be called up or signed. Curious as to the cap ramification of placing Savard on the LTIR, I took it upon myself to examine their current cap situation and determine just what impact Savard would have upon it going forwards. It took me 3-4 hours of slacking at work to work out the cap situations well enough to come up with the financial impact mentioned in my previous post.


In other words, the media 'insiders' required over 24 hours to analyze the Banta-Cain move and come up with the possible reasoning for it... if an embedded reporter needs that much time, what hope does the average fan have of understanding the complexities of the NFL salary cap? Meanwhile, an average NHL fan was able to determine just what impact a major move would have upon the teams salary cap after just 3-4 hours. It took me, the average fan, 20% less time to learn the ins and outs of the NHL's cap in my spare time than it took for a veteran, knowledgeable reporter to determine the motivation behind one simple NFL move.

In the NFL, only the extremely passionate and intelligent fans have a chance at understanding the intricacies of the financial side of the game. This can definitely be a turn-off for the average fan as FA and trade discussions will always remain incomplete. The NHL fosters their fans interest in organizations and their possibilities by making their financial structure so accessible and simplified. In my mind, that is a major win for the NHL as it will only serve to strengthen an already loyal fanbase.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Chicken Little Brigade

If Boston's spotty start wasn't enough to get the typical naysayers going in full force, events of the past week should ramp their cries up to full volume. Trading Kobasew for spare parts while announcing Lucic's impending absence would have been enough to bring out the boobirds but then to have Savard go down? Even otherwise sensible fans are joining the 'Chicken Little Brigade' and declaring the Bruins season over before it has even truly started! It honestly makes me hate being a Boston fan at times with the pervasive desire for instant gratification you see from so many supposed diehards.

Now I am not trying to say the loss of Savard and Lucic is nothing... it will definitely have an impact on the Bruins game. However, I choose to look at the positive aspects of this situation of which there are thankfully plenty.

1 - Timing
Would you rather the Bruins lost Savard in October or in March? Early in the year troubles can be overcome, often with relative ease... just look at the Penguins of last season. They were out of the playoffs in the 10-spot as late as February 28th! So why worry so about early points? The Bruins don't need to lead the Northeast from wire to wire again... they just have to stay in the running until they get back to full health. After all, playoff performance is all that should truly matter.

2 - Opportunities
Let the kids see the ice. Sobotka has been bouncing between Providence and Boston for two years now... its about time the Bruins find out what they really have in him. Is he an AHL all-star who can't cut it in the NHL as his performance would suggest thus far or is he a legit NHL player? No way of finding out until he sees regular icetime and now is as good a time as ever for that to happen. This also gives Boston an opportunity to get Brad Marchand some invaluable experience... in his debut last night he definitely looked like he belonged. Played with no fear or nerves for 15 minutes, including 1:45 on the PK and earned his first career assist. Very promising debut for Boston's 2006 third round selection.

3 - Motivation
With a player of Savard's caliber absent, the rest of the team knows it has to step up to fill that void. All 13 forwards on that roster now feel the need to up their game and help cover for Savard's lost production, none moreso than Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Bergeron has been looking more and more like the player Boston signed to a hefty contract in 2006 and has been one of Boston's best thus far. If Patrice can carry more of the load offensively and return to his 70-point game Boston becomes that much more dangerous a team.

4 - Financial
After the trade for Paille and Lucic's injury, Boston's daily cap hit fell $4.4K shy of the upper limit which prorates to $850K (Lucic's cap hit). In other words, Boston was right up to the cap and had little wiggle room. With Savard being replaced by Whitfield, Boston's daily cap hit falls $28,180 below the limit (Savard's daily pay) for a daily saving of ~$24K. If the roster remains static for the duration of Savard's time on LTIR, the Bruins will see the following savings against the cap:
30 days - $737K*
45 days - $1.093M*
60 days - $1.450M*

So before any more fans foolishly join the Chicken Little Brigade, maybe they should think about the potential long-term benefits from this situation. Boston will have additional cap space, more experienced depth players and stronger, more resilient personnel... all crucial elements for a long playoff run!


I should add, after seeing Paille play last night I am very pleased with the outcome of the Paille/Kobasew trades. It was Paille's hard-work and willingness to get dirty in the corners and behind the net that allowed Begin to score the game-winner last night. Boston improved draft picks while lowering their cap with minimal on-ice impact. Don't believe me? Then check out this objective analysis. Oh, and let's not forget that Chuckie was a UFA while Paille is an RFA.

*Note: This is based on my understanding of the LTIR's impact on cap space per the NHL's CBA. By no means should this be taken as being gospel truth.

Monday, September 21, 2009

New beginnings...

Thanks to my good friend Dan, I was able to get tickets to a dozen Bruins home games this year including an all-important Montreal Canadiennes game. This means that the 2009-2010 Bruins season has officially begun in my mind! Thus, I am back on here ready to go at this for a second year... hopefully I will be posting more frequently but nobody should hold their breath (blue skin just really isn't pretty...)


To begin with, I am going to ignore the elephant in the room and look into something that really bothered me this offseason. Last season, for the first time ever I was the proud holder of a 'season ticket'-ish 12 game pack for the Bruins. By buying in bulk, I was guaranteed a shot at playoff tickets and got the regular season tickets at 75% off or roughly $42 for solid balcony seats. As much as I would love to get full season tickets, I just can't justify the cost and the added transportation problems (I live 25 miles due west of the Garden and pay $20 for parking) and so I was debating getting a similar package as last season. Until I saw the price...

$63

Ticket prices went up a full 50% from last season! While I understand that the Bruins were very successful last year and therefore it only makes sense to raise prices, that kind of increase is ridiculous gouging! Now it turns out that the majority of season tickets saw either no increase (if purchased before March 18) or minimal increase in cost (5% if purchased before April 30) which does make the situation more palatable. Basically, the team is sticking it to the new fans who are jumping on board now and to those who haven't been steadily supplying their income before this year. A sound business practice I suppose given the ridiculous season ticket totals (up 5K to 13,200) but still brutal for fans like me who are stuck in between categories. The real concern now becomes next season... there is no guarantee the prices will remain fixed again.


Now for the elephant in the room... the trading of 22yo, 36-goal scoring Phil Kessel to divisional rival Toronto. Before getting into my thoughts on the trade, there is one thing about this that absolutely astounds me...

At last season's trade deadline, there was rumors of a deal being in place with Toronto to ship them Kessel for Kaberle with Boston also asking for Toronto's #1. Turns out Burke, in his infinite stupidity, thought the offer was Kaberle for Kessel and BOSTON'S #1... needless to say, PC turned it down immediately.

Jump ahead a few months to the actual trade and Kessel gets shipped off for two #1s and a #2. Does that mean that Burke actually values 31yo Tomas Kaberle at THREE first round picks?! Sure looks that way... just boggles my mind!


As for the trade, I am all for it. Way I see it, the guy was asking WAY too much for what he brings to the ice. Sure, Phil has terrific speed and one of the nastiest shots in the game... there is no doubting that. However, what is being doubted is more important... his desire, his toughness, his willingness to play through pain, his understanding of the team concept, his attention to defense... need I go on? Fact is, there just is no room for him under Boston's cap and shuffling the roster to re-sign him would only have proven detrimental going forward. With his big cap-hit on the books for the next few years Boston would have been unable to re-sign team cornerstones Savard (UFA), Lucic (RFA), Wheeler (RFA) and Stuart (RFA) as well as (hopeful) goalie-of-the-future Rask (RFA). The simple facts of life under the cap.

With these picks, Boston now has 5 of the top 60 picks in 2010 (Tampa's 2010 #2 in the Recchi deal). Those picks will be invaluable with the lowering cap predictions and could prove very handy at this seasons trade deadline. Also, while this season's draft is supposedly looking pretty weak, it is not like the Bruins can't trade up to top-3 with the bevy of picks they now have. Now we just have to pull for the Leafs to go 0-for-2010, even if it means Montreal gets 6 wins!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Thomas Extension - Ramifications

The Boston Globe is reporting that Tim Thomas signed an extension with the Bruins for 3 years at $5.2M per (the same amount as Brodeur). Needless to say, this has some MAJOR ramifications for the future of the team, not all of which are of a positive nature. As much as I love Thomas and everything he has done for this team, I have very mixed feelings about this contract and here is why:

Timing - One of the positive aspects of the deal actually. Per the new CBA, a player's contract can be bought-out for 2/3rds the value with the cap hit being 1/3rd the value spread out over double the remaining length. (Example: Player A has 2 years left on his contract with a cap hit of $3M per. If he were bought-out, he would have a $1M cap hit for the next four years.) However, while players signed after the age of 35 may still be bought-out, there is no cap relief allowed. Tim Thomas turns 35 on April 15th. Had he not been signed til the offseason, the Bruins would not have the insurance of cap relief via buy-out should Thomas struggle at the end of his contract.

Duration - What does this mean for Tuukka Rask, the goaltender of the future? People have already been clamoring for him to take over for Manny and back-up Tank after his impressive 35-save shutout earlier this year. The plan has been to get him up next season as a backup and get him used to NHL life before having the responsibility of starting thrust upon him. A one or two year extension for Thomas would have made sense as Rask could have backed up next season (25 games?) and then swapped the following season (50 games?). With three years of Tank, the question becomes when does Rask assume the starting role and will he get frustrated waiting for it?

Monetary - Not gonna lie, $5.2M a year is an awful lot for an older goalie, especially when there is someone like Rask waiting in the wings. I would have very much preferred his deal top out around $4M but nothing to be done about it now. This will make the upcoming offseason that much more critical as Boston has three RFA's who will all be demanding a raise. Currently, Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick combine for a $3.8M cap hit... my guess is they will require at LEAST $10M next season to retain all three. At best, Boston will have $8M in cap space (assuming the cap ONLY drops $1.7M to $55M) meaning someone will have to be moved. It may also prove difficult the following offseason with four RFA's needing to be signed (Rask, Wheeler, Lucic, Stuart). Mind you, when I say that these seven need to be signed, I mean NEED... these are the kind of players you build a franchise around. It will take some impressive work from Chiarelli to keep this group together in light of the Thomas signing.

My hope for the cap next year? It has a slight drop to the aforementioned $55M giving Boston the most room possible. With the CBA securely installed, the rookie contract bonus structure will return, meaning that Rask and Wheeler will see their cap hit drop from a combined $5M to ~$1.6M (I need to do more research into this matter to better understand the specifics of the cap and how bonuses are applied but this is my current understanding.) Should the bonuses be removed from cap consideration and Glen Murray win his appeal (thus taking his $1.4M buy-out off the cap next season) Boston would have 15 players under contract for $44.4M (8 F, 5 D, 2 G). This is assuming PJ, Hnidy and Yelle are not re-signed for next season.

Problems arise when you attempt to add in the hopeful $10M for the three RFAs as the Bruins have $600K in cap room with only 18 players (10 F, 6 D, 2 G) under contract! Should Ward retire (a definite possibility given his age and frequent injuries) the Bruins would save another $2.5M giving $3.1M to sign three forwards and two defenseman. Would be very difficult to say the least. One possibility would be PJ, Yelle and Hnidy returning for a combined $2.25M ($750K a pop seems legit) meaning two spots still need filling with $850K and thats just not happening! Looks like Kobasew, Sturm or Bergeron will be trade bait with Kobasew being the best asset due to his health and lower contract. Unfortunately, it is for those very qualities that I would want to keep the man in a Boston uniform!

Oh, and let's not forget... the cap is expected to drop even further the following off-season! The same off-season that Rask, Wheeler, Lucic and Stuart will be RFAs. This is going to require some impessive massaging of contracts and cap-hits for PC to make this all work... and that is with a number of beneficial assumptions all going in Boston's favor!

In all honesty, this signing may have just killed the future of the Bruins...

Edit: Apparently the extension is actually 4 yrs, $20M. Goodbye Tuukka. Goodbye Phil. Send us letters from your future ASG appearances!

Thursday, February 5, 2009

I'm a celebrity!

Ok... not really. Well, actually, not at all...

I did, however, get my question answered in the latest Bruins mailbag which is quite pleasing since it has been something I have been wondering for some time but unable to get any news on. Here it is:
Any word on the Glen Murray appeal? Last I remember hearing, it was scheduled for January 16th. Did something change or has the verdict simply not been rendered? Also, regarding the appeal, am I correct in believing that the best option would be for Glen to win? That way, he could be placed on LTIR this season, wiping his salary off the cap and taking the $1.4M buyout figure off of next season's cap as well?
Dave, Natick

A: Dave, the second installment of the Murray hearing is scheduled for Feb. 12. There might even need to be a third day of hearings. But once the hearings are complete, I'm told that a verdict will be rendered shortly after. And yes, in terms of cap purposes, it would be best for the Bruins if Murray won the appeal. They'd have to pay his full $4.15 million this year, but his buyout money would be completely off the 2009-10 books.

So the good news is that Bruins fans should have a definite answer in a week or two. Glad to see my understanding of the situation was correct and that a Bruins 'loss' would in fact be a victory! C'mon Glen! (and your lawyer/agent) Help the Bruins out one last time!

Edit: On an editorial note, I have a monster in the works but I am still crunching numbers and trying to decide how best to attack it...