Bruins fall to Flyers 2-2

I know what you are thinking... how is it possible for a team to lose a tie game? Sadly it is very possible in today's NHL where officiating gaffes are quietly brushed under the rug and the officials are never held liable.

In yesterday's game there was a game-altering moment in the first period when Vlad Sobotka, centering the 4th line, came down the right side and put a backhand on net which Boucher saved. Sobotka was able to flip the puck in as he passed the net and started celebrating (understandably) only to see it emphatically waved off.

Initially, I assumed the issue was that the net was off its mooring thanks to the Philly D-man crashing into the post and was annoyed that such a play would negate a goal. However, replay immediately showed that the puck was in the net well before the net came off its moorings so there goes that theory.

I then immediately feared an early whistle or even worse, its mentally deficient cousin, the assinine 'intent' to blow the whistle. Again, replay told the story as the whistle came long after the puck was in the net and there was no possible justification for 'intending' to blow the whistle before the puck went in.

So now the question is, why the HELL was the goal waved off?! Whats worse is that no replay was even allowed for reasons unknown to anyone. Finally the league's 'justification' was given after the first intermission and it was truly laughable... see for yourself:



Andy Brickley reports that the excuse was that "Boucher was not allowed the opportunity to make a save because he was shoved into his own goal as he was trying to cover the puck." Problem is, any contact forcible to move Boucher away from the puck came from his own teammate well after the puck was in the net. What contact Sobotka's left foot may have made was negligible at best and goalies absorb more contact than that on allowed goals in practically every game!

So long story short, the refs screwed up and the league went out of their way to cover for them... AGAIN.


I think the part that amuses me most is the fact that the national hockey blogs (PuckDaddy, Kukla's) have completely and utterly ignored this story after making such a big stink of Detroit's disallowed goal last month. Way to have equitable and consistent coverage guys!

Could there be a light at the end of the tunnel?

The Bruins finally appear to have recaptured some of last season's mojo and are playing as everyone expected them to entering the season. The defense has been excellent for the past five games, as has the goaltending and the offense appears to finally be coming around. As if this wasn't enough good news, it would appear that the walking wounded are closer to returning to the ice and are expected in two weeks or so.


During the telecast of Tuesday's game against Pittsburgh, VS interviewed Marc Savard about his recovery path. Apparently the plan is to be back on the ice this coming Tuesday and if everything goes well and doctors give their permission he hopes to be back in action four or five days later.

Meanwhile, the Globe is reporting that Milan Lucic had his first skate with the team today to test how his surgically repaired finger handled vibration from puck-impact on the blade. There were no problems reported though he has yet to take any slap shots or bodychecks. Julien is being understandably cautious with the hulking winger and setting his return date to at least a week away, if not a bit longer.


What does this all mean you ask? It means that the REAL Bruins will likely take the ice for the Monday night game in St. Louis on the 23rd with at least a week's practice under the belt.

Question now is, who gets sent down? Whitfield is an obvious choice but will Marchand or Sobotka be the ones to stick? My money is on Sobotka but he may be forced out along with Marchand due to cap considerations.

One area where the NHL trumps the NFL

Most Americans consider the NFL to be the dominant sports league and view the NHL as a fringe organization. Unfortunately for puckheads, this is a pretty accurate assessment as hockey lacks anything close to the national television deal that the NFL enjoys. However, one area where the NHL has it all over the NFL is its financial transparency. Incidents of the past week illustrate my point perfectly...


On Monday, October 19th the Patriots released LB Tully Banta-Cain, the team leader in sacks who was making only $620K on his one-year deal. There was no reason given for the surprise release and all media outlets were dumbfounded by the move and struggled to explain any possible motivation. The following day, Banta-Cain re-signed with the Patriots for more money and more years and the best explanation ESPN could come up with was essentially a best guess and nothing definite. They THINK it was due to the player being signed to a cap-friendly contract type that could not be altered until its conclusion, and thus the release was necessary to get an extension.


The same week, the Bruins lost Marc Savard, their first line center and leading scorer, for 4 to 6 weeks to a broken foot. For a team that was pushing up against the cap, such an injury has major cap implications as replacements must be called up or signed. Curious as to the cap ramification of placing Savard on the LTIR, I took it upon myself to examine their current cap situation and determine just what impact Savard would have upon it going forwards. It took me 3-4 hours of slacking at work to work out the cap situations well enough to come up with the financial impact mentioned in my previous post.


In other words, the media 'insiders' required over 24 hours to analyze the Banta-Cain move and come up with the possible reasoning for it... if an embedded reporter needs that much time, what hope does the average fan have of understanding the complexities of the NFL salary cap? Meanwhile, an average NHL fan was able to determine just what impact a major move would have upon the teams salary cap after just 3-4 hours. It took me, the average fan, 20% less time to learn the ins and outs of the NHL's cap in my spare time than it took for a veteran, knowledgeable reporter to determine the motivation behind one simple NFL move.

In the NFL, only the extremely passionate and intelligent fans have a chance at understanding the intricacies of the financial side of the game. This can definitely be a turn-off for the average fan as FA and trade discussions will always remain incomplete. The NHL fosters their fans interest in organizations and their possibilities by making their financial structure so accessible and simplified. In my mind, that is a major win for the NHL as it will only serve to strengthen an already loyal fanbase.

Chicken Little Brigade

If Boston's spotty start wasn't enough to get the typical naysayers going in full force, events of the past week should ramp their cries up to full volume. Trading Kobasew for spare parts while announcing Lucic's impending absence would have been enough to bring out the boobirds but then to have Savard go down? Even otherwise sensible fans are joining the 'Chicken Little Brigade' and declaring the Bruins season over before it has even truly started! It honestly makes me hate being a Boston fan at times with the pervasive desire for instant gratification you see from so many supposed diehards.

Now I am not trying to say the loss of Savard and Lucic is nothing... it will definitely have an impact on the Bruins game. However, I choose to look at the positive aspects of this situation of which there are thankfully plenty.

1 - Timing
Would you rather the Bruins lost Savard in October or in March? Early in the year troubles can be overcome, often with relative ease... just look at the Penguins of last season. They were out of the playoffs in the 10-spot as late as February 28th! So why worry so about early points? The Bruins don't need to lead the Northeast from wire to wire again... they just have to stay in the running until they get back to full health. After all, playoff performance is all that should truly matter.

2 - Opportunities
Let the kids see the ice. Sobotka has been bouncing between Providence and Boston for two years now... its about time the Bruins find out what they really have in him. Is he an AHL all-star who can't cut it in the NHL as his performance would suggest thus far or is he a legit NHL player? No way of finding out until he sees regular icetime and now is as good a time as ever for that to happen. This also gives Boston an opportunity to get Brad Marchand some invaluable experience... in his debut last night he definitely looked like he belonged. Played with no fear or nerves for 15 minutes, including 1:45 on the PK and earned his first career assist. Very promising debut for Boston's 2006 third round selection.

3 - Motivation
With a player of Savard's caliber absent, the rest of the team knows it has to step up to fill that void. All 13 forwards on that roster now feel the need to up their game and help cover for Savard's lost production, none moreso than Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. Bergeron has been looking more and more like the player Boston signed to a hefty contract in 2006 and has been one of Boston's best thus far. If Patrice can carry more of the load offensively and return to his 70-point game Boston becomes that much more dangerous a team.

4 - Financial
After the trade for Paille and Lucic's injury, Boston's daily cap hit fell $4.4K shy of the upper limit which prorates to $850K (Lucic's cap hit). In other words, Boston was right up to the cap and had little wiggle room. With Savard being replaced by Whitfield, Boston's daily cap hit falls $28,180 below the limit (Savard's daily pay) for a daily saving of ~$24K. If the roster remains static for the duration of Savard's time on LTIR, the Bruins will see the following savings against the cap:

30 days - $737K*
45 days - $1.093M*
60 days - $1.450M*

So before any more fans foolishly join the Chicken Little Brigade, maybe they should think about the potential long-term benefits from this situation. Boston will have additional cap space, more experienced depth players and stronger, more resilient personnel... all crucial elements for a long playoff run!


I should add, after seeing Paille play last night I am very pleased with the outcome of the Paille/Kobasew trades. It was Paille's hard-work and willingness to get dirty in the corners and behind the net that allowed Begin to score the game-winner last night. Boston improved draft picks while lowering their cap with minimal on-ice impact. Don't believe me? Then check out this objective analysis. Oh, and let's not forget that Chuckie was a UFA while Paille is an RFA.

*Note: This is based on my understanding of the LTIR's impact on cap space per the NHL's CBA. By no means should this be taken as being gospel truth.

New beginnings...

Thanks to my good friend Dan, I was able to get tickets to a dozen Bruins home games this year including an all-important Montreal Canadiennes game. This means that the 2009-2010 Bruins season has officially begun in my mind! Thus, I am back on here ready to go at this for a second year... hopefully I will be posting more frequently but nobody should hold their breath (blue skin just really isn't pretty...)


To begin with, I am going to ignore the elephant in the room and look into something that really bothered me this offseason. Last season, for the first time ever I was the proud holder of a 'season ticket'-ish 12 game pack for the Bruins. By buying in bulk, I was guaranteed a shot at playoff tickets and got the regular season tickets at 75% off or roughly $42 for solid balcony seats. As much as I would love to get full season tickets, I just can't justify the cost and the added transportation problems (I live 25 miles due west of the Garden and pay $20 for parking) and so I was debating getting a similar package as last season. Until I saw the price...

$63

Ticket prices went up a full 50% from last season! While I understand that the Bruins were very successful last year and therefore it only makes sense to raise prices, that kind of increase is ridiculous gouging! Now it turns out that the majority of season tickets saw either no increase (if purchased before March 18) or minimal increase in cost (5% if purchased before April 30) which does make the situation more palatable. Basically, the team is sticking it to the new fans who are jumping on board now and to those who haven't been steadily supplying their income before this year. A sound business practice I suppose given the ridiculous season ticket totals (up 5K to 13,200) but still brutal for fans like me who are stuck in between categories. The real concern now becomes next season... there is no guarantee the prices will remain fixed again.


Now for the elephant in the room... the trading of 22yo, 36-goal scoring Phil Kessel to divisional rival Toronto. Before getting into my thoughts on the trade, there is one thing about this that absolutely astounds me...

At last season's trade deadline, there was rumors of a deal being in place with Toronto to ship them Kessel for Kaberle with Boston also asking for Toronto's #1. Turns out Burke, in his infinite stupidity, thought the offer was Kaberle for Kessel and BOSTON'S #1... needless to say, PC turned it down immediately.

Jump ahead a few months to the actual trade and Kessel gets shipped off for two #1s and a #2. Does that mean that Burke actually values 31yo Tomas Kaberle at THREE first round picks?! Sure looks that way... just boggles my mind!


As for the trade, I am all for it. Way I see it, the guy was asking WAY too much for what he brings to the ice. Sure, Phil has terrific speed and one of the nastiest shots in the game... there is no doubting that. However, what is being doubted is more important... his desire, his toughness, his willingness to play through pain, his understanding of the team concept, his attention to defense... need I go on? Fact is, there just is no room for him under Boston's cap and shuffling the roster to re-sign him would only have proven detrimental going forward. With his big cap-hit on the books for the next few years Boston would have been unable to re-sign team cornerstones Savard (UFA), Lucic (RFA), Wheeler (RFA) and Stuart (RFA) as well as (hopeful) goalie-of-the-future Rask (RFA). The simple facts of life under the cap.

With these picks, Boston now has 5 of the top 60 picks in 2010 (Tampa's 2010 #2 in the Recchi deal). Those picks will be invaluable with the lowering cap predictions and could prove very handy at this seasons trade deadline. Also, while this season's draft is supposedly looking pretty weak, it is not like the Bruins can't trade up to top-3 with the bevy of picks they now have. Now we just have to pull for the Leafs to go 0-for-2010, even if it means Montreal gets 6 wins!

Pyrrhus or Yamamoto?

The question is... whose quote better fits the situation after Game 5 of the Boston-Carolina series?

History lesson time! Pyrrhus led a Greek kingdom named Epirus in the early 3rd century BC and was widely held as one of the greatest military minds of the Hellenistic Era. Only Alexander the Great (his ancestor) was placed ahead of him by Hannibal of Carthage. In the days of Rome's infancy, they were still attempting to control the Italian peninsula and were fighting with Greek colonies there. These Greek colonies turned to Pyrrhus for aid and he answered, sensing a chance to expand his own kingdom at the expense of the still vulnerable Rome. Pyrrhus invaded southern Italy (Tarentum) and fought the Romans twice, winning both battles. However, his victories were so costly in terms of manpower lost that he was quoted by Plutarch as saying:

If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.

So despite his forces winning the battles, they had lost the war and thus the term 'Pyrrhic Victory' was born. It is a case where the initial victory is so costly that defeat is all but assured in the long run and I fear that may be the case for the Bruins if Ward is lost to injury. With Boston's blueline already thinned by injuries to Hunwick and Ference the loss of Ward's steadying veteran presence and 19 minutes of ice time could prove devastating. He would be replaced by an AHL call-up (likely Johnny Boychuk) with minimal experience, thus increasing the already heavy workload on Chara, Wideman and Stuart. Not a good thing to say the least.


Or will his loss and the lack of punishment to Walker provide the spark Boston so desperately needed and propel them to a series victory? These Bruins have shown they thrive upon the physical game and play their best when they have been angered. Evidence of this can be found in the 5-1 domination of Dallas early this season (Ott was trying to end careers) and the destruction of Montreal after the closing fireworks to Game 1. So did this spark and the absurd punishment (apparently a punch hard enough to break the orbital bone is not considered a "reckless and forceful blow to the head" but Lucic's bump was) provide enough of a boost to the Bruins to overcome the potential absence or diminished role of Aaron Ward?

Who knows... it is anyones guess at this point in the series. Personally I am on the fence but I like to imagine Carolina players and fans muttering Admiral Yamamoto's (alleged) response to the bombing of Pearl Harbor...

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.

Ah the hypocrisy...

Milan Lucic has officially been suspended for Game 3.

So let me get this straight... according to Colin Campbell players are allowed to:
-- Sucker punch an opponent in the face at the drop of the puck while on the wing (Cammalleri)
-- Attempt to elbow an opponent in the jaw, missing by less than an inch (Kostopoulos)
-- Continually eye-gouge an opponent, drawing blood and requiring sutures (Komisarek)
-- Hit a player into the boards while they are celebrating an ENG to seal a playoff game (Lapierre)


However, they are not allowed to do the following or they will be suspended:
-- Punch an opponent in the back of the head while at center (Carcillo)
-- Defend yourself from a charging agitator after already having been elbowed in the face (Lucic)


At the end of a blow-out over Montreal (how sweet that sounds!), Lucic was elbowed/butt-ended in the face by Mathieu Schneider. Like any legit player (this excludes most of Montreal's roster), Lucic went back at Schneider and crosschecked him as payback. This drew the attention of resident PITA Lapierre, who came flying towards Lucic from the side while he was engaged with Schneider. Seeing the oncoming pest, Lucic, already in the defensive position, raised his hands and made contact with Lapierre's head, knocking off his helmet. He was immediately attacked by Komisarek and effectively jumped by THREE Montreal players. On ice, Lucic was given 2 for cross-checking, 5 for fighting (I believe) and 10 misconduct leading to a 5-minute power-play for Montreal. It was only after the game that the call magically transformed into an match penalty for an intent to injure... very curious to say the least.

So Colin Campbell, who just this week laughed off the suggestion of actually deigning to punish Montreal players for blatant attempts to injure, determines that Lucic deserves to be suspended. What is worse is, he is going by Lucic's intent... not his actual actions!

While it is unclear whether Lucic's glove or stick makes contact with Lapierre, what is clear is that he delivered a reckless and forceful blow to the head of his opponent

Apparently Kostopoulos can intend to injure by throwing an elbow but that is acceptable since he didn't actually connect... only Lucic's intents are punishable. Needless to say, the acts of Gary Bete-man and his lap-dog Colin Campbell have SERIOUSLY damaged the integrity of the game. Not only has there been minimal consistency in officiating throughout the season now there is no consistency in discipline either and punishment apparently is determined not by your actions but by your star power and team. How else can you explain a Flyer and Bruin getting punished while Flames and Canadiens' get off scott-free? The only explanation can possibly the star power of players involved (Komisarek, Cammalleri) and the opposition/teams involved. After all, both Boston and Philly have reputations of being rough-and-tumble teams (despite Boston ranking at the bottom of the league in penalties) while Montreal and Pittsburgh (aka Crosby and the Malkinites) are both the media-darlings of the league. That is the only posisble explanation here...

I suppose Bete-man finally got his dream... he has turned the NHL into the NBA!

Did Chiarelli screw the pooch?

Let me preface this by saying that by no means am I a Chiarelli-basher nor am I an doom-and-gloom troll as are (sadly) so common in Bruins forums. I generally agree with the moves Chiarelli makes and understand that not every move he makes will be perfect (Schaeffer, Nokelainnen) and that a GM should be judged by the total body of his work (Wheeler, Ryder, Lucic, Krejci, Savard, Chara). However, he really seems to have messed up by signing Thomas to a 4yr, $20M deal, a slight change from previous contract rumors.

The reason I say Chiarelli screwed up is not in the signing itself... the merits of which are definitely debatable but can easily be defended. No, my issue is with his apparent misinterpretation of the CBA. This quote is taken from the Bruins Blog Friday afternoon:

According to a source in the Bruins front office, part of what was driving the club to get the deal done now is that fact that Thomas will turn 35 years old on April 15.

When a player signs a new deal after his 35th birthday, per the collective bargaining agreement (CBA), although he can be bought out (at a two-thirds reduction in pay), his cap number can not be deleted from the club's salary commitments.

For next year, and for either two or three more years, Thomas will be on Boston's books for some $5 million a year. But because he has signed the deal before age 35, the Bruins have the safeguard -- that they would want to execute it -- to be able to buy him out at any time, cut their dollar commitment by one-third, and be able to spread the payments over twice the remaining term of the deal. It is a significant safeguard.

Now we are clearly led to believe by SOMEONE in the front office that the timing of this extension is key and provides the Bruins with some insurance against struggles and/or retirement. However, this is NOT the case as was pointed out by Larry Brooks and James Mirtle via Stanley Cup of Chowder. Curious as to what the disconnect was, I attempted to find answers in the CBA... no easy task for those unfamiliar with legalese such as myself. Here is what I found (transcribed from the CBA):

Actual Club Salary shall be calculated as follows:
All player salary and bonuses earned in a league year by a player who is in the second or later year of a multi-year standard contract which was signed when the players was age 35 or older (as of June 30 prior to the league year in which the contract is to be effective)...

The 'league year' in question is 2009 as the extension goes into effect next season. Therefore, the signing counts as 35+ and his cap-hit can NOT be affected by retirement. Only way to lose the 5M cap-hit is via trade or the ever-unappetizing buyout.

Now someone in the front-office was KPD's source and they clearly do not understand how the CBA works. My question is this... was this information allowed out to make the signing look better or was it a mis-interpretation by Chiarelli? Unfortunately, there is no positive answer for this... the former means Chiarelli (responsible for the front-office) lied to the fans... the latter means Chiarelli doesn't comprehend the CBA. Simply put, no good.

Thomas Extension - Ramifications

The Boston Globe is reporting that Tim Thomas signed an extension with the Bruins for 3 years at $5.2M per (the same amount as Brodeur). Needless to say, this has some MAJOR ramifications for the future of the team, not all of which are of a positive nature. As much as I love Thomas and everything he has done for this team, I have very mixed feelings about this contract and here is why:

Timing - One of the positive aspects of the deal actually. Per the new CBA, a player's contract can be bought-out for 2/3rds the value with the cap hit being 1/3rd the value spread out over double the remaining length. (Example: Player A has 2 years left on his contract with a cap hit of $3M per. If he were bought-out, he would have a $1M cap hit for the next four years.) However, while players signed after the age of 35 may still be bought-out, there is no cap relief allowed. Tim Thomas turns 35 on April 15th. Had he not been signed til the offseason, the Bruins would not have the insurance of cap relief via buy-out should Thomas struggle at the end of his contract.

Duration - What does this mean for Tuukka Rask, the goaltender of the future? People have already been clamoring for him to take over for Manny and back-up Tank after his impressive 35-save shutout earlier this year. The plan has been to get him up next season as a backup and get him used to NHL life before having the responsibility of starting thrust upon him. A one or two year extension for Thomas would have made sense as Rask could have backed up next season (25 games?) and then swapped the following season (50 games?). With three years of Tank, the question becomes when does Rask assume the starting role and will he get frustrated waiting for it?

Monetary - Not gonna lie, $5.2M a year is an awful lot for an older goalie, especially when there is someone like Rask waiting in the wings. I would have very much preferred his deal top out around $4M but nothing to be done about it now. This will make the upcoming offseason that much more critical as Boston has three RFA's who will all be demanding a raise. Currently, Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick combine for a $3.8M cap hit... my guess is they will require at LEAST $10M next season to retain all three. At best, Boston will have $8M in cap space (assuming the cap ONLY drops $1.7M to $55M) meaning someone will have to be moved. It may also prove difficult the following offseason with four RFA's needing to be signed (Rask, Wheeler, Lucic, Stuart). Mind you, when I say that these seven need to be signed, I mean NEED... these are the kind of players you build a franchise around. It will take some impressive work from Chiarelli to keep this group together in light of the Thomas signing.

My hope for the cap next year? It has a slight drop to the aforementioned $55M giving Boston the most room possible. With the CBA securely installed, the rookie contract bonus structure will return, meaning that Rask and Wheeler will see their cap hit drop from a combined $5M to ~$1.6M (I need to do more research into this matter to better understand the specifics of the cap and how bonuses are applied but this is my current understanding.) Should the bonuses be removed from cap consideration and Glen Murray win his appeal (thus taking his $1.4M buy-out off the cap next season) Boston would have 15 players under contract for $44.4M (8 F, 5 D, 2 G). This is assuming PJ, Hnidy and Yelle are not re-signed for next season.

Problems arise when you attempt to add in the hopeful $10M for the three RFAs as the Bruins have $600K in cap room with only 18 players (10 F, 6 D, 2 G) under contract! Should Ward retire (a definite possibility given his age and frequent injuries) the Bruins would save another $2.5M giving $3.1M to sign three forwards and two defenseman. Would be very difficult to say the least. One possibility would be PJ, Yelle and Hnidy returning for a combined $2.25M ($750K a pop seems legit) meaning two spots still need filling with $850K and thats just not happening! Looks like Kobasew, Sturm or Bergeron will be trade bait with Kobasew being the best asset due to his health and lower contract. Unfortunately, it is for those very qualities that I would want to keep the man in a Boston uniform!

Oh, and let's not forget... the cap is expected to drop even further the following off-season! The same off-season that Rask, Wheeler, Lucic and Stuart will be RFAs. This is going to require some impessive massaging of contracts and cap-hits for PC to make this all work... and that is with a number of beneficial assumptions all going in Boston's favor!

In all honesty, this signing may have just killed the future of the Bruins...

Edit: Apparently the extension is actually 4 yrs, $20M. Goodbye Tuukka. Goodbye Phil. Send us letters from your future ASG appearances!

RTSS = Home-Cooking?

The question arose while watching the latest Bruins-Canadiennes tilt at Montreal. After the first period, the hit totals in the game were 27 to 10 in favor of Montreal (shocker!) which put the Canadiennes on pace for 81 (!!!!) hits, only slightly above their home-average of 28.5 hits per game. The final hit total came out to 48-25 which is still a ridiculous total with an unrealistic difference between the two teams. Are we really to believe that the Canadiennes were TWICE as physical as the Bruins? Or was this just another instance of the home-town scorer being generous and stretching the definition of a hit?

This all got me thinking about statistics when involved with sports and how subjectivity should be avoided at all costs. The other major leagues rely primarily upon objective stats (the MLB error is the only subjective stat that comes to mind) as does hockey for the most part (goals, assists, +/-, shutouts, wins, losses etc…). However, lately there has been an increased interest in RTSS (Real-Time Scoring System) stats and I have seen these metrics used more and more when comparing players and teams. For those unfamiliar with the concept of RTSS, it is the use of a dedicated scorer to record the total number of hits, blocked shots, missed shots, giveaways, takeaways and faceoff outcomes for each team. It has been in place since the beginning of the ’97-’98 season but has only become accessible to everyday fans in the past year or so. Every NHL boxscore on ESPN features these statistics prominently, alongside shot and PIM totals, above the scoring summary. The placement of these subjective figures atop the page next to more traditional, objective statistics gives them an importance and legitimacy that is not truly deserved. Thankfully, the other main hockey/sports sites (SI, TSN, NHL) do not list this ‘information’ at all, or make it difficult to find as is the case with NHL.

Now don’t get me wrong... I am a big proponent of using statistics to compare players and teams. I love the fact that more and more statistical analyses are becoming available and that hockey and the NHL are moving in that direction. The game of baseball has changed dramatically over the past decade or two thanks to the advent of SABRmetrics and similar statistics which delve further into how the game is played. These advanced analyses have allowed for the objective comparison of players from any era by measuring those players against their peers (the only possible way to legitimately compare players of different eras). I have seen a similar approach taken with RTSS stats by adjusting the numbers to remove any inherent bias from certain arena scorers. However, too many questions arise with their methodology and the concept in general...

• What equations are to be used?
• How is a bias judged?
• How is it to be done?
• Will it be a rolling adjustment done after every game?
• Will it be based off last season's biases?
• Will it have to wait until season's end when all the numbers have been accumulated?
• What happens if the scorer, and thus the bias, changes mid-season?

Even should acceptable responses be established for all of these questions, there still remains a major flaw… the subjectivity of the original RTSS stats! The difference between adjusting RTSS stats and baseball’s ERA+, OPS+ and other SABRmetrics is their basis in facts; their basis in objective data. Consider adjusting statistics to be like building a house on a weak foundation… no matter how perfect the design (the adjustment equations) it is still doomed to collapse due to its poor foundation (RTSS stats). Here is an illustration of WHY they are such a poor foundation…

Hits – How do you define a hit? How hard does it have to be? Does a player have to be knocked to the ice or does a simple two-handed shove count? Sure, there are plenty of bruising hits with solid contact but there are just as many instances where some level of contact is made… how much constitutes an official hit? Also, while there are plenty of instances where there is a clear-cut aggressor, what happens when both players are trying to be physical? Does the hit get credited to both players or only to one, and if the latter who ‘wins’ the hit?

Blocked Shots – Is intent considered or does dumb luck play a role in this stat? Does the shot have to actually be on net (or appear to be doing so) to count as a block or is it merely recognition of the bravery to step in front of that vulcanized rubber disc, regardless of its destination? If the shot is blocked and caroms into the net, does it count as a blocked shot, a positive stat, despite the negative impact of the play?

Missed Shots – Same issue as the blocked shots but in reverse… does a shot not on net count as a miss even if blocked? And what about shots that are clearly going over the crossbar (and thus not on net) yet are gloved by the goalie… is that a shot or a missed shot?

Faceoff wins – How is a faceoff win determined? Is possession the only important thing or does it have to do with which side of the dot the puck ended up on? In other words, if the Boston center knocks the puck back towards his side but an opposing player is the first to gain possession who gets the win? The opposition clearly has the puck and thus won the faceoff and yet the Boston center did nothing to merit a loss since he controlled the puck better than his opponent.

Giveaway/Takeaway – Once again… what is the definition here? Apparently the two are mutually exclusive (a play can only be one or the other, never both) and therefore the two numbers do not have to balance out. Still the question becomes what counts as what… does a failed dump-in count as a giveaway or takeaway? Does an intentional icing or slow-roller (to prevent icing) count as a giveaway? What about errant passes… do they count and if so, who gets (dis)credited with it, the passer or intended receiver? Not always clear who is at fault for the missed opportunity. Or do they simply count as a takeaway regardless of whether the pass would have been ‘completed’?

Admittedly, the extent of the subjectivity in these statistics varies with hits, giveaways and takeaways having the potential to be ruled by scorer bias while the other three instances are more clear cut. However, the situations where each stat is opened to subjectivity (bias) are enough to skew the data over the course of the season and make them statistically useless. To prove the deficiencies of these stats, I will provide examples in my next entry...

I'm a celebrity!

Ok... not really. Well, actually, not at all...

I did, however, get my question answered in the latest Bruins mailbag which is quite pleasing since it has been something I have been wondering for some time but unable to get any news on. Here it is:

Any word on the Glen Murray appeal? Last I remember hearing, it was scheduled for January 16th. Did something change or has the verdict simply not been rendered? Also, regarding the appeal, am I correct in believing that the best option would be for Glen to win? That way, he could be placed on LTIR this season, wiping his salary off the cap and taking the $1.4M buyout figure off of next season's cap as well?
Dave, Natick

A: Dave, the second installment of the Murray hearing is scheduled for Feb. 12. There might even need to be a third day of hearings. But once the hearings are complete, I'm told that a verdict will be rendered shortly after. And yes, in terms of cap purposes, it would be best for the Bruins if Murray won the appeal. They'd have to pay his full $4.15 million this year, but his buyout money would be completely off the 2009-10 books.

So the good news is that Bruins fans should have a definite answer in a week or two. Glad to see my understanding of the situation was correct and that a Bruins 'loss' would in fact be a victory! C'mon Glen! (and your lawyer/agent) Help the Bruins out one last time!

Edit: On an editorial note, I have a monster in the works but I am still crunching numbers and trying to decide how best to attack it...

They're ba-aack!

Fluto at the Globe has confirmed that the Bruins will be getting considerable reinforcements tonight in the form of Lucic, Bergeron and Ference.

Lucic will be returning to the first line to play alongside Savard and Kobasew while Ference has been written into the second defensive pairing with Wideman (Stuart and Hnidy are the 3rd pairing). Bergeron will playing playing for the ill Michael Ryder (flu-like symptoms) on the second line alongside Krejci and Wheeler... hopefully Krejci continues his magic and jumpstarts Patrice's game as he previously did with Marco and Mikey.

The real surprise from all this is what it means to the kid, Matt Hunwick... instead of scratching him after his solid fill-in work, CJ has decided to try him on the wing. He is currently pencilled in to fill the left wing alongside Nokelainen and Byron Bitz (what a great name...) which should prove an interesting experiment. I love the idea of keeping a 7th D dressed as it lets CJ manage the minutes for Ward and Ference and is a nice insurance policy should one of the two go down... I would much rather play a with one less forward than 5 D...


EDIT: Fluto just reported that Phil Kessel has been cleared for contact and is in line to play in tomorrow's game against the Devils. He will be wearing extra padding around his midsection to protect his spleen (which can become enlarged due to mono) but it is purely a precautionary measure. His return will be a HUGE boost for the offense!

ASG recap and changes

Well, the 2009 NHL All-Star Weekend has come and gone with all the usual highlights and an unfortunate number of lowlights. Despite their best attempts, Montreal fans were unsuccessful in barring Boston from the festivities with all four Bruins making their presence felt. Quick recap of the Bruins’ impact upon the weekend…

Blake Wheeler – Hat trick in the YoungStars game (against Carey ‘The Second Coming’ Price!) and a couple of assists… named MVP.

Zdeno Chara – Breaks record for hardest shot with 105.4mph blast and raises $24K for Right to Play, his charity of choice. Was booed (as were all the Bruins) at the introductions but amazingly, the Montreal fans were classy enough to applaud his record-breaking victory and his honorable charitable efforts.

Marc Savard – Runner-up in the elimination shootout to Shane Doan… three assists in the game and one funny bastard when mic’ed up.

Tim Thomas – The true MVP of the ASG… gave up two quick goals in 3 minutes and then only allowed 1 more in the last 22 minutes, including stonewalling Nash and Doan on the shootout. Ultimately had 19 saves on 22 shots in 25 minutes and 2 for 2 in the shootout… winning goalie for second straight year.

Now for those unfortunate lowlights… the NHL just can’t seem to avoid the damned things! Of course, in this instance I am referring to the glaring issues with fan voting determining the starters. The fact that this game ended up being a contest between the ‘Pittreal Canaduins’ and the ‘Chicaheim BlackDucks’ is pathetic to say the least. It is even more damning when you consider the fact that the four teams (Montreal, Chicago, Anaheim & Pittsburgh) to comprise the starting lineups are not in the top 6 in the NHL (7th, 10th, 16th & 18th respectively) and not one leads their division. So now the question is… what can be done to right the ship and make the NHL ASG at least slightly reputable?

1 – Keep the ‘1 Team, 1 All-Star’ rule currently in place and allow fans of each team to vote on their team’s representative. This would fill 15 of the 21 roster spots with the remaining six being given to the league to decide upon. The main problem here would be too many teams voting in goalies but this could be solved using season stats as tie-breakers and the fans second choice being named in the loser’s stead.

2 – Same as #1 with a twist… the extra roster spots are given out proportionally to the top teams in each conference. For instance, this season would see two extra spots go to Boston, Washington, Detroit and San Jose since they are the clear ‘elite’ of their respective conference. The remaining four extra spots would be divided between Chicago, Montreal, New Jersey and Calgary as these are the 3rd and 4th team in each conference based on the standings. The problem here is that the proportional spots could not be determined until close to the break and therefore fan-voting wouldn’t be possible for those.

3 – Get rid of the ‘1 Team, 1 All-Star’ rule and just let the league fill in the 15 reserves with the most deserving candidates regardless of team. This would make the ballot-stuffing less damaging since there would be more spots for the truly deserving to still make the squad. Problem here is that the rule is in place to make it so that every fanbase has someone to cheer for and therefore a reason to watch the ASG. This could be solved by ensuring all teams are represented in the skills events and the YoungStars game… possibly even upping the ratio of non-ASG team reps to account for the disparity.

Needless to say, however the NHL decides to act (or not act as is more likely the case), controls need to be implemented to limit excessive voting from one source. Whether it be vote caps per email or IP address, I do not know… I just know that the NHL needs to change it and has two full years to do so. My guess is nothing will change for 2011 and Bete-man will point towards the results of this years game and the ‘fair and balanced’ voting as evidence that all is well.

Back in Action!

Been a whiles since I last posted... I would use the holidays or work as my excuse but its two weeks into the new year and I haven’t had any real work in months so those aren’t gonna fly. Guess I will just blame my absence on a lack of motivation (I am a complete slacker after all…) and nothing that really inspired me to write a post. Anywho, I am back now and will try to do this on a more regular basis. In the meantime, a lot has happened in the world of sports since I last posted so I suppose it is about time I caught up...


NHL –
Not planning on saying much here as I plan on having a couple posts dedicated to them in the coming week. Just need to say that the last second equalizer for St Louis in yesterday’s matinee was unequivocally a high-stick and I am utterly baffled as to how the replay officials missed that and thus failed to overturn the goal. That said, the loss cannot be blamed on the officiating since there is no way the Blues should have been able to get that shot off or even still be in the game that late. Such is life…

I love Carey Price’s dedication to his team... he sits out important regular season games due to an injury but of course manages to come back to play in a meaningless exhibition for his own greater glory. That is the definition of a selfish player... going after personal honors instead of being more concerned about team goals and honors. Teams rarely go far in the playoffs when their goalie is more concerned about looking out for himself at the expense of the team. No way would Thomas, a true team player, act in such a way…


MLB –
After all the experts predicted he would sign with the Red Sox, Mark Teixeira signed an 8 year, $180M deal with New York last month meaning the Yankees now have spent $424M this season on three players (20 years total). This also means that the Yankees have the four of the six highest paid players in baseball for 2009 (Santana #3, Cabrera #5) totaling $92M, or more money than the payroll for 16 other TEAMS! It also means the Yankees have the highest paid player at 6 of 8 possible positions (Cano is second for 2b, Damon is eighth for OF). Now I realize that my Red Sox have benefited from the lack of a salary cap in MLB but this is just getting ridiculous. Quite simply, when one team is given such a dramatic competitive advantage over the rest of the field, something needs to be done about it…

Now one could argue that this is all sour grapes from a Red Sox fan… after all, according to the experts Boston was a near lock to sign Teixeira so his ‘defection’ to the Yankees stings more. However, as a Red Sox fan, I am thrilled they didn’t give into Boras’s demands for $20M+ per season and I love the $244M spent on an ever-expanding blimp and a pitcher who lives on the DL. In all seriousness, Burnett has not been able to stay healthy for his entire career so what chance is there he will be able to do so after getting the big payday? Can anyone say Pavano 2.0? As for Sabathia, the man easily weighs 350lbs already… what is going to happen in three or four years when he is pushing four bills? He may work out in the short-term but no way does he pull a Dave Wells and pitch well as an old fattie. I see the two contracts being wasted money by 2011, if not sooner…

That said, I would wager a considerable amount of money on the Yankees not winning the 2009 World Series. Hell, I honestly doubt they will even make the playoffs… there is more to baseball than buying the best possible team. After all, if it were all about money how would the Phillies ($98M, #13) have won the title over the Rays ($44M, #29!) while the Yankees ($209M, #1), Tigers ($139M, #2) and Mets ($138M, #3) all failed to even qualify for the playoffs?

As for the Red Sox, they have been taking the low-risk, high-reward approach by signing veteran pitchers (Smoltz, Penny, Saito) while also locking up their young talent long-term (Pedroia, Youkilis). At this point, the only concerns heading into 2009 is filling the void at catcher (preferably with someone NOT named Varitek) and the healthy return of Lowell and Ortiz from off-season surgery. For all the Yankee signings, I still think Boston has the advantage (in terms of both depth and talent) in the rotation, bullpen (major advantage) and defense. It is far too early to be making predictions but it is safe to say I am confident of yet another competitive Red Sox campaign in 2009…

NFL –
The Patriots became the second team in NFL history to reach 11 wins yet fail to qualify for the playoffs. Many fans are calling for a change to the NFL’s playoff formats since ‘lesser’ teams (8-8 Chargers, 9-7 Cardinals, 9-6-1 Eagles, 10-6 Vikings) made it to the playoffs ahead of New England. My view is that no change is needed and the Patriots’ not making the playoffs is their own fault since they could have (and should have) won the second Jets game and the Colts game. They can only blame themselves for not stopping the Jets on 3rd and 15 in OT or for the stupid drive-killing penalty to David Thomas against the Colts.

Though the Patriots did fail to make the playoffs, their season still has to be considered an unmitigated success. After all, how many franchises could lose the reigning MVP in the opening minutes of the season, hand over the reigns to an absolutely unproven quarterback and still finish 11-5? Their success is especially impressive when you consider the number of veteran starters lost to injury (Harrison, Thomas, Bruschi, Warren, Green, Maroney, Neal). During the year, the Patriots had undrafted rookies starting at LB and RB (Guyton, Green-Ellis) and two retirees signed off the street starting the final four games at LB (Colvin, Seau). The bright spot in all this is the progression of our recent top draft picks… Brandon Meriwether validated his ’07 first round selection while Jerod Mayo was an absolute revelation at linebacker and will (hopefully) be a cornerstone of the defense for years to come.

As for the playoffs, I am still having a hard time believing that the Cardinals made it past the Panthers and Eagles to make it into the Super Bowl. Can this really be the same team that the Patriots limited to 186 yards (78 of which came on one meaningless TD) in destroying them 47-7? I would love to see the Cardinals stun the world by beating the heavily favored Steelers if only to say that the Patriots absolutely dominated the reigning champs (and yet didn’t make the playoffs). The fact that I despise the Steelers probably has something to do with my rooting for the Cardinals too…

Oh, one last thing… Peyton Manning won his third NFL MVP. Of course, this honor came along with his routine first-round exit from the playoffs. That runs his record up to 7-8 in the postseason with SIX first-game departures (3 WC round, 3 divisional round)… and that is even crediting him with the 4 wins of their championship run where he was carried by the defense and ground attack (3 TDs, 7 INTs in 4 games). Makes me wonder… would he rather have his 3 MVPs, 7-8 playoff record and 1 ring or Brady’s 1 MVP, 14-3 playoff record and 3 rings? I certainly know who I would take…

Yes, it really is a bad thing...

Well, he did it again and quite frankly, no one should be surprised by it. I am, of course, referring to Sean Avery's obviously rehearsed insults directed at Dion Phaneuf through the media and the immediate backlash that ensued. No surprise that he did this... it was actually a fairly shrewd move on his part seeing as Phaneuf and Iginla would have destroyed him had he played that night. I happen to think the suspension was merited and could care less if he is ever allowed to return to the ice! I could go on at length about this topic but it has already been beaten into the ground and Tom at HCtB already said it better than I could have (with quite the title I might add).

No, the title of this blog is actually referring to the disaster that is the NHL All-Star balloting and the fact that some people are actually trying to justify the potential of a Canadienne starting lineup. Reading this actually made me quite annoyed so I decided I would pick apart the argument piece by piece...

For starters, from an atmosphere-in-the-arena point of view, can you imagine how loud, how crazy, how overwhelming it will be when the starting lineup is announced and the East is represented entirely by the bleu, blanc et rouge? Montreal fans, who need little to no reason to break into song at any moment, will be bellowing themselves hoarse. It will be a scene to remember, probably one of the top 10 moments in Bell Centre history. This is called an “ends justifying the means” argument.

Wait, aren't the Canadienne fans supposedly the best in the league? If that were truly the case, why would they need a reason to 'bellow themselves hoarse'? Shouldn't the simple fact that they are hosting the game be enough? Good hockey fans shouldn't need for the starting lineup of an All-Star game to be comprised of their favorite team to get excited about attending the game.

Oh, and seeing as the Bell Centre opened in '96, are we really supposed to be all excited about its potential for being one of the 'top 10 moments' in its history? It's only been around for TWELVE years!

Another situation that has been raised is the Rory Fitzpatrick fiasco of a couple years ago, when Canucks fans nearly voted in the journeyman defenseman despite the fact he was a regular healthy scratch in Vancouver. The difference this time is, these six Habs are integral to Montreal’s fortunes. As mentioned, Koivu, Markov and Tanguay deserve to be in the game, period. And you can make a case for the others: Komisarek is a stay-at-home, physical force; Kovalev might not be playing up to his own lofty standards, but he’s still Montreal’s most dangerous forward; and, there’s no doubting Price’s caliber and upside.

So the starting six for every other franchise is immaterial to the team's fortunes? What makes the Montreal sextet more deserving than Boston's starters Lucic, Savard, Kessel, Chara, Ward and Thomas? Hell, four of those six merit inclusion anyways while Ward and Lucic are certainly more deserving than the inconsistent twins, Kovalev and Price! So why shouldn't Bruins be the AS game starters? They have better stats than the Montreal starters (31-48-79 +42 compared to 25-50-75 +20; 1.88GAA, .940% vs 2.40GAA, .920%) and are on a better team!

Good things are ahead for them and, by extension, the Canadiens. Besides, it’s not like Kovalev is bumping Crosby right out of the game; he’s just bumping him out of the starting lineup. And, finally…c’mon, folks, it’s the All-Star Game. Like the All-Star Game in every other sport, it doesn’t really matter and nobody cares too much. Go out, have fun, put on a good show for the fans and, for heaven’s sake, don’t get hurt. As a player, that’s all you really have to do.

No, Crosby will still get to play in the game... there is no doubt about that. Same goes for Malkin and Ovechkin. However, the league will have to use three spots that should have gone to more deserving players who may not get a second opportunity. Assuming the roster is filled out with the top scorers for each position, that would leave a number of more deserving candidates out in the cold. As it stands now, this will be the AS-roster with the TRUE starters in bold...

D - Markov, Komisarek, Streit, Hainsey, Green, Kuba
F - Koivu, Kovalev, Tanguay, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Gagne, Savard, Semin, Richards, Carter, Parise
G - Price, Thomas, Lundqvist

Of the six Canadiennes, only one merits starting... the other five honestly don't even merit inclusion! Komisarek (1-0-1) knocks out the more deserving Girardi (3-12-15, 6th in D scoring), Rozsival (2-12-14, T8th) or Wideman (6-7-13, T10th).

The starting trio of Kovalev (5-13-18, T31st in F scoring), Koivu (7-14-21, T18th) and Tanguay (8-9-17, T37th) knock out three more deserving players, including Vanek (18-5-23, T12th), Zherdev (9-15-24, 11th), Kessel (13-7-20, T23rd) and/or Backstrom (6-17-23, T12th).

Price (8th in GAA, 7th in %) locks out Auld (3rd GAA, 5th %) or Anderson (4th GAA, 1st %) from getting onto the roster.

I selected these nine players for a reason... all have had far superior production than the Canadiennes starters to this point in the season and none have ever played in the All-Star Game. For those people who say the game is pointless and means nothing, tell that to the players! Tell that to Tim Thomas and Marc Savard who saw last year's addition to the roster as a career-making moment... these two players had been criticized for their style and play throughout their entire career. To finally attain the honor of making the AS roster meant they had truly arrived... they were considered among the best in their profession and no one could take that away from them. If you think that first AS bid means nothing to the players, then you are a fool. It especially holds true for any player who has had to go through adversity to get to this stage in their career.

You think Phil Kessel wouldn't be thrilled to make the game? It would prove that you CAN overcome testicular cancer and develop into a three-zone player and get recognized for your efforts. You think Tim Thomas wouldn't consider the AS start (which he deserves) as the greatest possible salve for all the garbage he had to deal with throughout his well-travelled career? Some of these players may never get another chance at being an All-Star... being considered one of the elite. So you talk to those players and then tell me the game is meaningless and that it is a good thing the Montreal sextet gets to play when more deserving candidates are left out in the cold. Truly pathetic.

Oh, and for those Canadiennes fans complaining about the inroads Crosby has made in the voting, did you ever think that it was your own doing? All fans around the league have been annoyed by your actions and are responding by trying to oust your unworthy candidates by pushing the more deserving players. As for Whitney and Gonchar being the highest non-Montreal vote-getters for D-men, the same rule applies... had Montreal not stuffed the ballot (electronically or not), Pitt fans would not have done so either. Canadienne fans have no right to complain about something they caused in the first place...

21 down, 61 to go

Before the season began, I predicted the scoring totals for the players I expected to stick with the club. Seeing as the Bruins just played their 21st game of the season (thus passing the quarter-mark), I figured it was a good time to revisit those predictions. Not surprisingly, some of the players were sent back down (Noke, Sobotka, Schaeffer) or just sent away (Alberts... poor guy) so I will focus more on who is left with the team.

Player........................G - A - P
Patrice Bergeron...........16-39-55
David Krejci................20-35-55
Marc Savard................31-74-105

P.J. Axelsson................0-26-26
Milan Lucic..................23-27-50
Marco Sturm................26-26-52
Shawn Thornton.............4-12-16

Phil Kessel...................39-23-62
Chuck Kobasew.............23-54-77
Michael Ryder...............12-31-43
Blake Wheeler..............23-12-35

Zdeno Chara................16-20-35
Andrew Ference.............0-34-34
Shane Hnidy..................0-9-9
Mark Stuart..................4-0-4
Aaron Ward..................0-12-12
Dennis Wideman...........20-20-40

Totals: 257- 455 - 711

Goalie........................GP - W - GAA
Manny Fernandez...........27 - 20 - 2.55
Tim Thomas.................55 - 35 - 1.80

Record: 55-12-15 125 points


Obviously these numbers are based on their current pace and are unlikely to hold up over the season. What really surprises me is the fact that my admittedly generous record, goals scored and goals allowed are actually proving underestimations. I was just hoping the Bruins would manage to put up close to 246 goals and 100 points... instead they are on pace for 257 goals and 125 points! My predictions were actually fairly accurate in most cases and I am most proud of pegging Lucic as nearing a 50-point scorer (predicted 48, pace for 51).

The obvious outliers are Bergeron, Krejci, Ryder, Kobasew, Kessel, Ference and Chara. I definitely seemed to misjudge Kessel and Krejci while I expect Kobasew and Ference to come back down to Earth (though will still have good seasons from both). Chara has been finding his game recently so I am less concerned by his numbers. My real worry is that both Ryder and Bergeron have been underperforming thus far... makes me question whether having the offensively challenged Axelsson on their line is really a good idea. Once Sturm recovers from this 'upper-body injury' (what the hell happened to him??) I really think they should move Kobasew up to the second line (Sturm has played too well with Krejci to move him). Chuck has been a great spark for us thus far and you have to think his physical game and play-making ability could only help Bergeron and Ryder find their games. Then again, they are winning games so why fix what ain't broke?

A Tour of Boston...

First stop, the Fens.
It was announced this past week that Dustin Pedroia won the AL MVP award (by a surprisingly large margin I might add). Certainly did not see this coming... even doubted my girlfriend when she proclaimed he would win it all the way back in July, saying medium-power balding midget two-baggers don't win MVPs. Looks like I was proved wrong and I have never been so glad!
Going into the vote, I was concerned that he and Youkilis would split the vote and allow someone to sneak in and steal it from them. However, I soon realized that Minnesota fans were battling the same concern with the Morneau/Mauer ticket and the fact that we made the playoffs all but ensured the win for Pedey. As TATB said, I still find it hard to believe that little Dustin Pedroia now has an MVP while past and current Red Sox greats like Manny, Pedro, Ortiz and Nomar have none.

There is even the question of whether Youkilis was the more deserving Sox for this award and he certainly had a strong case (though it only earned him third). My view on the matter is that Pedrioa and Youkilis were equally valuable to this team... it could not have succeeded without both players, from both a performance and leadership standpoint. With that in mind, I am glad that Pedroia took home the hardware in this instance seeing as the more powerful Youkilis is more likely to get another crack at this award. After all, table setting second basemen who bat second in the order rarely outshine cleanup-hitting first basemen. I just hope that Youk is able to take home some hardware of his own in the future.

Next stop, Foxboro(ugh)
With the sudden development of Matt Cassel as a NFL-level quarterback (thanks to that 400yd exclamation mark Thursday), there have been questions regarding his future. Some people advocate keeping him over Tom Brady while others think he needs to be re-signed and then traded once Brady's healthy. Frankly, these people make no sense and I question just how much football knowledge they actually possess. There is no way Cassel takes the paycut with NE to serve as a backup another year nor would he sign only to be traded... it just makes no sense. If you were Cassel, wouldn't you rather choose your employer and get a fresh-start with your new team rather than get sent to whoever gives NE the best haul? I know I certainly would. As for relieving Brady of his services, that is just daft... he is far too good a QB and it would wreak havoc on the salary cap (10.3M hit in '09)... it is just out of the question.

Last stop, the Causeway Vault
Still can't come to believe that the Bruins lead the Northeast division, and essentially the Eastern Conference (2 game deficit to NYR with 3 to play... you do the math). I mean, I saw them improving on last year's surprising playoff position but I was figuring we would get a 4-6 seed at best, not a top-three! Granted, it is still early but they have been playing so well lately that nothing seems to faze them... I mean, how many teams win handily after giving up 3 goals inside of five minutes to a divisional foe? Just unreal.

For those who still don't believe they are real, consider the following stats:
3.21 goals per game, 6th in NHL (Detroit leads at 3.65)
2.16 goals allowed per game, 2nd in NHL (Minnesota leads at 1.94)
+1.05 goal differential, 2nd in NHL (San Jose leads at 1.10)
21.3% PP efficiency, 6th in NHL (Detroit leads at 32.4%)
81.3% PK efficiency, 16th in NHL (Minnesota leads at 93.8%)
3-0-2 when opponent scores first

Clearly, by those stats, Boston is a top-5 team if not top-2 (behind SJ). Two things really jump out at me though... first, the penalty kill has really rebounded from an atrocious start. A few weeks into the season Boston was mired at the bottom of the league with a PK efficiency hovering just over 70%. Now it is at a respectable 81% which is a profound improvement over such a short time and I can see it steadily improving from here on out into the 85-86 range. The second surprise is our record when opponents score first... not only the fact that we have been very successful in that situation but that it has happened so rarely. We have scored first in 14 of 19 games thus far which goes a long way to dispel any questions about this team's performance and skill level. The fact that we have managed 8 of a possible 10 points when scored upon first is even more telling, as it shows the type of heart, determination and leadership this team has on a nightly basis. It doesn't matter if the Bruins are scored upon first, they never look at themselves as being out of any game and that is an amazing quality to have and will lead to considerable success. Hell, with that record, maybe we should always let them score first on us and end up with a 49-0-33 record and 131 points... or maybe not and we can just stick with what is working!

Hockeytown, USA?

Does Detroit really deserve the title? Or is Boston more deserving?

I have been mulling over this question for the past couple months as it randomly comes up in hockey conversations. Originally, I had planned to write about the NHL's policy, or lack thereof, regarding suspensions after illegal hits in the wake of the Van Ryn incident. However, I was beaten to the punch by Tom at HCtB which proved quite fortunate for me seeing as my attempt at the topic would have paled in comparison to his well-written and carefully thought-out masterpiece. So instead, I will write about this trivial matter... onwards to the debate!

NHL Success:
Boston
– Founded in 1924, Original Six member
– Seventeen Stanley Cup Finals appearances, Five victories
– Marquee players: Bobby Orr, Johnny Bucyk, Phil Esposito, Ray Bourque

Detroit
– Founded in 1926, Original Six member
– Twenty-three Stanley Cup Finals appearances, Eleven victories
– Marquee players: Gordie Howe, Terry Sawchuk, Steve Yzerman

At first glance, Detroit clearly holds the advantage here based on Cup victories but when you look at the facts, it is no longer quite so clear. The majority of their victories (7 of 11) are tainted by the grossly unfair practices present in the early days of the NHL. For the majority of its infancy, the NHL did not have an amateur draft but instead enforced an exclusivity policy. The policy ensured that franchises had absolute rights to players living within a 50-mile radius of their city. This was clearly detrimental to Boston, New York and Chicago as they were therefore blocked from the majority of Canadian prospects. (That is not even considering the fact that both New York and Boston are port cities and thus half their territory would be the Atlantic Ocean!) Detroit was mostly unaffected by this unjust policy since talent-rich southern Ontario fell within its territorial boundaries. This absurd policy remained in place until the advent of the amateur draft in 1963 but it had a major impact on all six franchises throughout the rest of the decade.

A second situation working in Detroit’s favor was its owner James Norris. This powerful figure actually controlled all four American franchises through varying means (purchased Chicago through a syndicate, major shareholder in Rangers, held mortgages for Bruins), allowing him to neglect them to further the causes of his Red Wings. Evidence of his lack of investment can be seen when looking at NHL playoff history from 1941 to 1970 as the trio only managed one Cup victory (Chicago ’61). It is even more evident when considering the fact that the ‘Haves’ only missed the playoffs in favor of a ‘Have-Not’ eight times over the three decades! Needless to say, Boston (as well as Chicago and New York) were at a major competitive disadvantage and any early NHL success should be reconsidered appropriately.

Local Success:
Boston
– Hosts the Beanpot, arguably the most famous amateur hockey tournament in the US.
– Four D-1 NCAA hockey programs (Northeastern, Harvard, BC, BU)
– Eight NCAA Championships in twenty-one appearances (4 and 11 in past 2 decades)*
– 161 NHL players**

Detroit
– One D-1 NCAA hockey program (U of Michigan 45 miles away)
– Nine NCAA Championships in eleven appearances (2 and 2 in past 2 decades)*
– 111 NHL players**

Boston has a clear advantage in this regard, especially when considering that Detroit’s only collegiate presence is actually in Ann Arbor (but was included for arguments sake). The difference between the two is even more resounding when you consider the fact that the majority UofM’s success came in the 50’s while BU and BC have dominated the 90’s and 00’s. Add in the sizeable advantage in NHL talent Massachusetts holds over Michigan and it would seem clear that Boston is more deserving of the title of Hockeytown, USA.

---------------------------------------------------------

* BU: 4-5 record, BC: 3-6 record, Harvard: 1-2 record, UofM: 9-2 recordYears of titles and appearances can be found here.

** Based on birthplace starting in 1918. Minnesota leads the way with 193 NHL players, with MA and MI second and third respectively. Values found here.

History repeats itself?

History repeats itself…

Watching hockey highlights over the weekend, I came across the Kostopoulos/Van Ryn incident and I couldn’t help but flashback to October 27th of last year. The date is burned into the minds of Bruins fans as day we nearly lost the face of our franchise to a dirty, illegal hit from behind into the boards. The thing that really disturbed me about the play was just the sheer similarity. In both instances, the guilty party had time to pull up and either avoid the hit all together or greatly reduce the impact. Instead, the ‘attacker’ decided to go in full steam and exacerbated the situation with the downward thrust to the shoulders. Had the check been a straight hip check, the injuries would have been far less severe as the body would have absorbed most of the impact with the boards. Instead, the shoulders were pushed downwards focusing the impact force onto the head and leading to serious injury.

Now the question becomes, what punishment will be brought down on Kostopoulos?

Bergeron-Jones incident results:
PIM – Jones 5 Boarding, Jones 10 Misconduct, Kobasew 2 Roughing
Injury – Severe concussion, broke nose
Time Lost – Remainder of season and postseason
Punishment – Two game suspension for Jones

Kostopoulos-Van Ryn incident results:
PIM – Kostopoulos 5 Boarding, Kostopoulos 10 Misconduct, 2 matching Roughing
Injury – Concussion (severity unknown), broken nose, broken hand/finger
Time Lost – Remains to be seen… minimum of one month
Punishment – Remains to be seen…*

Thankfully, Patrice Bergeron has managed a full recovery after being lost for the remainder of the ‘07-‘08 season. Hopefully the same will be true for Mike Van Ryn, preferably with a shorter layoff. I will be very interested to see if Kostopoulos is suspended for the hit... I get the upsetting feeling that he will get off with a slap on the wrist just like Jones did...

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On an unrelated note, I came across this link on the Boston Globe’s Bruins Blog and just had to share it… it is amazing to read everything Thomas has had to deal with to even get a chance to play in the NHL. Fortunately for him (and Boston), he has taken the opportunity presented him and run with it straight to the top of the NHL.

*Edit: Kostopoulos was suspended by the NHL for 3 games this afternoon. While I am glad to see there was a suspension issued, it comes with some concerns for me... for one, only three games? Seems pathetically low for such a serious injury, though I thought the same thing about Jones's two game suspension, which, of course, is my other concern. Why the difference in suspensions when the plays were nearly identical? I realize it is only one game but it is still different and its the principle of the matter.

Is there a trade in the works?

The question must be swirling through the Bruins locker room after word came down that Vladimir Sobotka has been assigned to Providence. He was reportedly told that he would return to the big club after this weekend.

Now considering the move only, it makes sense for the Bruins... Kobasew is expected back for Thursday's game and Sobotka has been a healthy scratch for most of this time with the parent club this season. Sending him down allows him to actually get some ice time in a game environment and continue with his development. It also allows Kobasew to get back on the ice while keeping a forward in reserve (Noke?) should anything happen.

Obviously, all of this is fairly elementary and any Bruins fan can understand the reasoning behind this move, whether they agree or not. The big question is, what's with the quick return? Obvious trade candidates are Fernandez (unlikely with massive contract), Axelsson (cheap defensive presence) or Sturm (underperforming)... I don't see any of these happening but who knows... should prove interesting.